Global-mean surface temperature is shown as an anomaly relative to the
1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline. The record is stitched from
three sources: a paleoclimate reanalysis of the deglaciation
(Osman et al. 2021) running from the Last Glacial Maximum to the mid-19th
century, the instrumental HadCRUT5 record (1850–2025), and three
model futures to the year 3000 simulated with the CLIMBER-X
Earth-system model.
The three pathways span Sustainable stewardship (P1, deep and fast
emission cuts), Middle of the road (P2), and a Hostile Earth
system (P3 — the same emissions as P2 but a higher climate sensitivity).
The colour scale behind the curves and in the stripe panel above is the same
throughout: deep blue for the glacial cold, greens around the pre-industrial
baseline, and warm reds toward the hottest futures.
References
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Osman, M. B., Tierney, J. E., Zhu, J. et al. (2021). Globally resolved surface
temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature 599, 239–244.
doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03984-4
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Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A. et al. (2021). An updated assessment
of near-surface temperature change from 1850: the HadCRUT5 data set.
JGR Atmospheres 126, e2019JD032361.
doi:10.1029/2019JD032361
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Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Robinson, A. & Edwards, N. R. (2022). The Earth
system model CLIMBER-X v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development 15,
5905–5948.
doi:10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022
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Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E. et al. (2017). The Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions
implications. Global Environmental Change 42, 153–168.
doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009
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Rockström, J. et al. (2026). CLIMBER-X long-term climate pathways to the year
3000 [Data set]. Zenodo.
zenodo.org/records/19696770