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An Interactive Foresight Report

Navigating
New Horizons

A scrolled reading of the UNEP & International Science Council foresight report — eight critical shifts and eighteen signals of change that will shape planetary health and human wellbeing between now and 2050.

What kind of world do we want our descendants to live in?

Source · UNEP-ISC (2024) 108-page report · distilled

Contents

Nine acts, one arc.

  1. IWelcome to the polycrisisThe new global context
  2. IISix waves, each shorter than the lastWhy foresight, and why now
  3. IIIThe radar of the near futureEight critical shifts
  4. IVEighteen signals of changeEarly symptoms of the future
  5. VWhere likelihood meets impactThe map of disruptions
  6. VIHumanity's stark choiceShared values, agile governance, data
  7. VIILevers within reachNot doom — agency
  8. §References & MethodologySources, citations, how numbers were computed
  9. VIIIThe Earth turns to GoldIn the hands of the wise

Act I · The New Global Context

Welcome to the polycrisis.

In an interconnected world, a local crisis seldom stays local for long. Territorial conflicts overspill; migration spreads; resource pressures increase. The triple planetary crisis — climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution — now feeds back into conflict, displacement and deteriorating trust.

85%of SDG targets off track or regressing
120Mforcibly displaced by April 2024
59 state-basedconflicts in 2021-23 — the most since 1946
$7Tin fossil-fuel subsidies in 2023 alone

A polycrisis is more than the sum of its parts. Interacting events — in systems each already under stress — produce harms greater than the shocks themselves would ever produce in isolation. Foresight is the discipline of noticing the small signals before they converge.

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Act II · The Backdrop

Six waves. Each shorter than the last.

Since 1760, six industrial waves — water and iron, steam and steel, electricity and chemicals, electronics and aviation, the internet, and now AI — have reshaped the world. Each wave has been faster than the one before. The sixth will unfold in 25 years.

The past decade showed, as few others have, the speed and scale at which change can happen. The rate of these changes — and the drivers acting on them — are accelerating. Foresight is how a society catches up with its own velocity.

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Act III · Eight Critical Shifts

A radar of the near future.

Eighteen months of Delphi surveys, regional workshops and youth sensemaking distilled the global scene into eight critical shifts: phenomena already reshaping the world, visible on the horizon between today and 2050.

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Act IV · Eighteen Signals of Change

Early symptoms of the future.

A signal of change is a small development that could grow into a world-altering trend — the pebble before the avalanche, the parasite that makes the pearl. Each signal below carries the report's survey data: how likely, how hard, how soon.

Open the References disclosure at the bottom of any signal to see its primary peer-reviewed sources. See the References & Methodology section for an explanation of the starred weighted likelihood figure.

№ 01
Humans and the environment
2025 2035 2050 7+ years

Ancient microbes hidden in thawing Arctic permafrost

Potential disruption. Ancient lethal viruses frozen in the Arctic permafrost are released by Earth's warming climate, unleashing a catastrophic global health emergency.

The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the globe. Up to four sextillion microorganisms could be released from thawing cryosphere each year — pathogens and antibiotic-resistant bacteria for which modern immunity is unprepared.

Weighted likelihood *
73%
Intensity of impact
2.4 / 3

4 sextillion microorganisms released each year

References (3)
  • Rantanen et al. (2022). Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe. Communications Earth & Environment.
  • Yarzábal et al. (2021). Past, present, future: microbial mining in Antarctica. Extremophiles.
  • Wu et al. (2022); Alempic et al. (2023). Revival of pandoraviruses from Siberian permafrost.
№ 02
Humans and the environment
2025 2030 2050 4–6 years

New emerging zoonotic disease

Potential disruption. Unabated climate and environmental change shifts species ranges, creating new interactions between species that did not previously exist — increasing zoonotic spillovers and triggering another pandemic.

If spillover events continue rising 5–8% per year, the most common zoonotic pathogens could cause twelve times more deaths in 2050 than in 2020. 1.7 million undiscovered viruses are thought to circulate in the global virome.

Weighted likelihood *
84%
Intensity of impact
2.7 / 3

12× more zoonotic deaths by 2050

References (3)
  • Plowright et al. (2021, 2024). Land use-induced spillover. The Lancet Planetary Health.
  • Dobson et al. (2020). Ecology and economics for pandemic prevention. Science.
  • Meadows et al. (2023). Spillover estimates and pandemic projections.
№ 03
Humans and the environment
2025 2032 2050 7+ years

Antimicrobial resistance approaching critical levels

Potential disruption. Antibiotics become ineffective and common infections near impossible to treat — leading to a global health crisis and a leading cause of death.

1.27 million deaths already attributed to AMR. By 2050, up to 10 million deaths per year. Healthcare costs could reach US$1 trillion and GDP losses US$3.4 trillion annually by 2030.

Weighted likelihood *
79%
Intensity of impact
2.6 / 3

10 million AMR deaths per year by 2050

References (3)
  • Murray et al. (2022). Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance. The Lancet.
  • UNEP (2023b). Bracing for Superbugs — Strengthening environmental action in the One Health response to AMR.
  • World Bank (2017); Roope et al. (2019). Economic costs of AMR.
№ 04
Humans and the environment
2025 2030 2050 4–6 years

Unforeseen impacts of harmful chemicals and materials

Potential disruption. Large-scale unchecked chemical contamination unleashes a global health crisis — devastating effects on young people, immune function, cognitive health and fertility.

350,000 chemicals and substances are listed for production and use. Most chemicals found in the environment have never been measured in it. Many — including microplastics — are reaching humans via food, water, agriculture and industry.

Weighted likelihood *
88%
Intensity of impact
2.6 / 3

350,000 chemicals in use, most unmeasured in the wild

References (3)
  • Wang et al. (2020). Toward a global understanding of chemical pollution. Environmental Science & Technology.
  • Muir et al. (2023). Global chemicals inventory and assessment gaps.
  • UNEP (2023c). Global Chemicals Outlook II.
№ 05
Critical resources
2025 2035 2050 7+ years

Rapid expansion of space activity and orbital debris

Potential disruption. The rapid expansion of space activity damages the ozone layer, increases risks to critical communication and observation infrastructure, while undermining national security and geopolitical stability.

Rocket emissions in the upper atmosphere have nearly 500× the warming potential of surface sources. Re-entering debris is vaporizing into metallic particles that could deplete the stratospheric ozone — a problem the Montreal Protocol never imagined.

Weighted likelihood *
62%
Intensity of impact
2.0 / 3

US$3.7 trillion space industry by 2040

References (3)
  • Ryan et al. (2022). Impact of rocket launch and space debris air pollutants on stratospheric ozone and climate.
  • Maggi et al. (2023). Atmospheric impact of rocket emissions.
  • Tyler (2023). The commercial space economy outlook.
№ 06
AI, digital transformation and technology — a wave of change
2025 2040 2050 7+ years

Emerging mindset of continuous learning and 'exonovation'

Potential disruption. An expanding exonovation mindset moves from the margins to the mainstream — a new paradigm where the status quo is no longer accepted and sustainability transitions prevail.

Exonovation is the deliberate discarding of outdated, harmful or inefficient technologies, norms and beliefs — the forgotten counterpart to innovation. The sharing economy is projected to reach US$335 billion by 2025, a 34-fold increase in a decade.

Weighted likelihood *
54%
Intensity of impact
2.0 / 3

The quiet art of unlearning

References (2)
  • O'Brien (2016). Climate change and social transformations: is it time for a quantum leap? WIREs Climate Change.
  • PwC (via UNEP). Sharing-economy growth projections.
№ 07
AI, digital transformation and technology — a wave of change
2025 2040 2050 7+ years

Deployment of Solar Radiation Modification

Potential disruption. Speculative solar geoengineering is widely deployed through large-scale interventions with immediate effects on Earth's climatic system.

Climate despair is driving quiet research into reflecting sunlight away from Earth. A sudden halt once deployed would trigger a 'termination shock' — rapid warming snapping back. The UNEA-6 resolution to even review SRM failed in 2024.

Weighted likelihood *
45%
Intensity of impact
2.1 / 3

The moral hazard of cooling the sky

References (2)
  • UNEP (2023). One Atmosphere: An independent expert review on Solar Radiation Modification.
  • UNEA-6 (2024). Draft resolution on Solar Radiation Modification (withdrawn).
№ 08
A new era of conflict
2025 2030 2050 4–6 years

Autonomous and AI weapons systems

Potential disruption. Widespread use of AI-driven weapons that operate without human oversight — machines selecting and destroying targets without direct human guidance, producing massive civilian casualties.

Ukraine and the Middle East have become testing grounds. LLMs have been shown to recommend pro-escalation tactics without clear logic. Humanoid battlefield robots signal an AI-dominated warfare on the horizon.

Weighted likelihood *
82%
Intensity of impact
2.6 / 3

"We cannot sleepwalk into a dystopian future." — UN Secretary-General

References (2)
  • Rivera et al. (2024). Escalation risks from language models in military and diplomatic decision-making.
  • Guterres, A. (2024). UN Secretary-General remarks on AI governance, Security Council briefing.
№ 09
A new era of conflict
2025 2030 2050 4–6 years

New technologies amplify risks of biological agents misuse

Potential disruption. The convergence of AI, biotechnology and their dual-use nature, without adequate regulation, enables the creation and use of biowarfare and bioterrorism — threatening global security.

Synthetic biology and machine learning could enable novel bioweapons targeting specific demographics. Even well-intentioned research carries accidental release risks. A biological attack on livestock or crops could yield massive economic repercussions.

Weighted likelihood *
63%
Intensity of impact
2.5 / 3

The dual-use shadow of synthetic biology

References (2)
  • Nuclear Threat Initiative (2023). Biosecurity Innovation and Risk Reduction.
  • UN Biological Weapons Convention (2022). Ninth Review Conference — Working Papers on emerging technologies.
№ 10
Mass forced displacement
2025 2040 2050 7+ years

Uninhabitable spaces

Potential disruption. Large tracts of land become unfit for human habitation due to climate-induced extremes — wildfires, flooding, air quality, intolerable heat, prolonged conflict. Large-scale relocation becomes the norm.

By 2070, up to 3 billion people could live outside the climate conditions that served humanity for 6,000 years. Extreme fires have risen more than tenfold in temperate conifer forests in the last two decades. Low-lying atolls face existential threat.

Weighted likelihood *
89%
Intensity of impact
2.7 / 3

3 billion outside the climate niche by 2070

References (3)
  • Xu et al. (2020). Future of the human climate niche. PNAS.
  • Cunningham et al. (2024). Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme wildfire. Nature Ecology & Evolution.
  • Spencer et al. (2024). Habitability and the five pillars framework.
№ 11
Persistent and widening inequalities
2025 2040 2050 7+ years

Privatized micro-environmentalism

Potential disruption. The commoditization and inequitable access to nature and ecosystem services — available only to the wealthy — exacerbate social and economic polarization.

Private, enclosed, sometimes artificial habitats offering stable ecosystem services to paying members. A world where breathable air and a connection to nature are commodified by the ultra-rich — eroding the idea that clean air and healthy ecosystems are basic human rights.

Weighted likelihood *
42%
Intensity of impact
1.8 / 3

Nature behind a paywall

References (1)
  • OHCHR (2022). UN General Assembly resolution 76/300 recognising the right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment.
№ 12
Persistent and widening inequalities
2025 2035 2050 7+ years

An uninsurable future

Potential disruption. Homes and critical infrastructure in certain regions are no longer served by insurance. A surge in losses and mortgage defaults forces governments to step in to prevent collapse of housing markets and wider financial contagion.

Private insurers are already withdrawing from climate-exposed regions. US OMB estimates climate change could reduce GDP by 3–10% and cost US$25–128 billion in additional disaster relief annually by 2100.

Weighted likelihood *
73%
Intensity of impact
2.5 / 3

US$25–128 billion in extra disaster relief a year

References (2)
  • US Office of Management and Budget (2022). Climate risk exposure: an assessment of the federal government's financial risks to climate change.
  • Swiss Re Institute (2023). Natural catastrophes and insurance in a changing climate.
№ 13
Misinformation, declining trust and polarization
2025 2027 2050 2–3 years

Decisions increasingly detached from scientific evidence

Potential disruption. Poor policy decisions are made on populist rhetoric and community pressure — not on science or other knowledge.

Climate causes and consequences have been well established for over 50 years, yet Paris Agreement targets remain unattainable. Short-term issues crowd out long-term risks. Disinformation is named the most severe global risk of the next two years.

Weighted likelihood *
80%
Intensity of impact
2.6 / 3

The most severe global risk of the next two years

References (2)
  • World Economic Forum (2024). Global Risks Report.
  • UNESCO (2022). Journalism under digital siege: countering misinformation during COVID-19.
№ 14
Misinformation, declining trust and polarization
2025 2030 2050 4–6 years

Eco-anxiety — an emerging crisis hidden in plain sight

Potential disruption. Climate- and eco-anxiety among children and youth becomes widespread, giving rise to a global mental-health crisis where isolation and mass disaffection profoundly affect societal functioning.

In a 10-country survey, 59% of young respondents were "very or extremely worried" about climate change. Over half reported sadness, anxiety, anger, powerlessness, helplessness and guilt. Twelve billion working days are lost globally to depression and anxiety each year — a US$1 trillion productivity loss.

Weighted likelihood *
82%
Intensity of impact
2.4 / 3

59% of young people very or extremely worried about climate

References (3)
  • Hickman et al. (2021). Climate anxiety in children and young people and their beliefs about government responses to climate change. The Lancet Planetary Health.
  • WHO (2022). World Mental Health Report: Transforming mental health for all.
  • Haseley & Lament (2024). The emotional catastrophe of climate change.
№ 15
Misinformation, declining trust and polarization
2025 2030 2050 4–6 years

Surging fossil fuel subsidies

Potential disruption. Subsidies continue unabated, re-orienting global capital away from clean-energy technologies — entrenching inequalities, triggering massive regression on climate mitigation, and backlash against the energy transition.

Fossil-fuel subsidies reached a record US$7 trillion in 2023 — up US$2 trillion in just two years. This undermines cost-competitiveness of renewables and incentivizes continued reliance on the most destructive fuels.

Weighted likelihood *
71%
Intensity of impact
2.5 / 3

US$7 trillion — the record 2023 subsidy

References (1)
  • Black et al. / IMF (2023). IMF Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data: 2023 Update. IMF Working Paper WP/23/169.
№ 16
Misinformation, declining trust and polarization
2025 2027 2050 2–3 years

Escalating risks of corruption in carbon offsetting

Potential disruption. Fraudulent carbon sequestration schemes proliferate — undermining climate mitigation efforts and causing widespread harm to ecosystems and vulnerable communities.

One 2023 study found more than 90% of projects by a major global certifier were likely 'phantom credits'. The voluntary carbon market is projected to grow from US$2 billion (2021) to US$50 billion by 2030 — with few guardrails against double counting, monoculture afforestation, or eviction of Indigenous communities.

Weighted likelihood *
65%
Intensity of impact
2.2 / 3

90%+ of some offsets — phantom credits

References (2)
  • West et al. (2023). Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation. Science.
  • Blaufelder et al. (2021). A blueprint for scaling voluntary carbon markets. McKinsey Sustainability.
№ 17
Polycentricity and diffusion of governance
2025 2029 2050 4–6 years

New tools for rerouting global financial flows

Potential disruption. Governments in the world's biggest economies require businesses to report social and environmental impacts — and penalize firms for harms caused. Declining share prices of unsustainable businesses shift corporate governance.

135 countries agreed a 15% global minimum corporate tax rate in 2024. The Basel Committee compels banks to disclose net-zero alignment. The EU Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive forces very large companies to issue 1.5°C-aligned transition plans.

Weighted likelihood *
72%
Intensity of impact
2.6 / 3

135 countries, one minimum corporate tax

References (3)
  • OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on BEPS (2024). Pillar Two global minimum tax.
  • European Union (2024). Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD).
  • Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2022). Principles for the effective management and supervision of climate-related financial risks.
№ 18
Polycentricity and diffusion of governance
2025 2040 2050 7+ years

Local, network-driven resilience

Potential disruption. Frustrated by national failures and enabled by digital technologies, networks of local communities become the primary driving force behind global resilience.

From the 15-minute city to distributed climate networks, cities from Montréal to Bogotá, Barcelona to Busan demonstrate the nimbleness that nations have lost. 14,000+ non-state actors have committed to halving emissions by 2030.

Weighted likelihood *
54%
Intensity of impact
2.3 / 3

14,000+ non-state actors pledging to halve emissions

References (3)
  • Di Marino et al. (2022). The 15-minute city: a cross-cultural perspective.
  • UN Race to Zero Campaign (2023). Non-state actor climate action tracker.
  • C40 Cities (2023). Progress report on member city emissions.
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Act V · The Map of Disruptions

Where likelihood meets impact.

Each signal plotted by its survey scores. Uninhabitable spaces sits in the upper-right — the most likely, the most impactful. Exonovation and local network-driven resilience live on the left. Possible but unfamiliar. Hover a point to read the signal.

Reader: the report is not a prediction. It is a discipline of imagination — a structured way to notice what might matter before it becomes impossible to ignore.

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Act VI · The Turn

Humanity has a stark and urgent choice.

Continue to destabilise the planet and risk losing humanity's life-support system — or build a future that embraces equity, addresses the drivers of environmental degradation, and achieves sustainable development.

01

Shared Values

A new social contract. Embrace diverse stakeholders — women, Indigenous peoples, local communities. Give young people a voice proportional to the consequences they will inherit. Move beyond GDP to inclusive wealth and wellbeing indices.

02

Agile Governance

Short-term, measurable, high-impact targets alongside long-term goals. Empower communities to engage, experiment and learn. Integrate Indigenous knowledge and sustainable practices. Build horizontal networks of cities and regions.

03

Data & Knowledge

Strengthen global monitoring — climate, ocean, terrestrial — and add tracking of positive tipping points, not only negative ones. Combine AI, Earth observation and ground-truthing into an accessible, integrated picture of the planet.

“It really boils down to this: all life is interrelated. We are all caught in an inescapable network of mutuality, tied into a single garment of destiny. Whatever affects one directly, affects all indirectly.”
— Martin Luther King Jr., 1967
Umoja Kiswahili · strength through unity
Ubuntu Nguni · I am because we are
Kaitiakitanga Māori · guardianship of sky, sea and land
Seven Generations Haudenosaunee · decide for those not yet born
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Act VII · Levers Within Reach

Not doom. Agency.

Several of the eighteen signals are positive — early indicators of mechanisms already bending the trajectory. Foresight exists to amplify these signals as surely as to mute the harmful ones.

Signal 17

Rerouting global financial flows

135 countries agreed a 15% minimum corporate tax in 2024. Basel III requires banks to disclose net-zero alignment. The EU's Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive forces 1.5°C transition plans from large firms.

Signal 18

Local, network-driven resilience

From Montréal and Barcelona to Cape Town, Busan and Bogotá — cities demonstrate the nimbleness nations have lost. 14,000+ non-state actors have pledged to halve emissions by 2030.

Signal 06

Exonovation — the art of unlearning

Innovation's forgotten twin. Actively discarding outdated, harmful or inefficient technologies, practices and norms. The sharing economy alone grew 34-fold in a decade.

Part 3

A new framework for prosperity

Inclusive Wealth Index. Multidimensional Vulnerability Index. Wellbeing indices that account for air, spaces, mental health. A shift from shareholder capitalism to stakeholder capitalism.

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References & Methodology

Sources.

Every number, quote and claim on this page traces back to the UNEP-ISC report Navigating New Horizons (2024) or to a peer-reviewed work it cites. References are listed per signal above (open the References disclosure on each). The list below consolidates the primary source, headline data points and how the two derived fields were computed.

Primary source

United Nations Environment Programme & International Science Council (2024). Navigating New Horizons: A global foresight report on planetary health and human wellbeing. Nairobi: UNEP.
DOI: 10.59117/20.500.11822/45890  ·  Full report (PDF)

Methodology notes

* Weighted likelihood. The UNEP report publishes, for each signal, a seven-bin Delphi survey distribution (from exceptionally unlikely to virtually certain). The report does not publish a single scalar score. The figure shown in each signal's likelihood bar is a weighted midpoint we computed from that distribution, with the seven bins weighted evenly from 0 to 1. It is directional — a compact summary useful for comparison across signals — not a number the report itself asserts. The intensity score and perception score, by contrast, are published directly.

Timeframe year. The dial on each signal card in the report points to a specific year between 2030 and 2050. Where the exact dial position was resolvable from the source figure we used that year. Where it was not, we used a year within the published bracket (2–3 years, 4–6 years, or 7+ years from 2024). The coarse category shown alongside each dial is the value the report publishes.

Headline data — cross-referenced

  • 85% of SDG targets off track or regressing — United Nations (2023). The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2023: Special Edition.
  • 120 million forcibly displaced (April 2024) — UNHCR (2024). Global Trends in Forced Displacement.
  • 59 state-based conflicts in 2021–23 — Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), cited in the UNEP report.
  • US$7 trillion fossil-fuel subsidies, 2023 — IMF Working Paper WP/23/169 (Black et al., 2023). Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data: 2023 Update.
  • Six industrial waves (Figure 9) — adapted from Costanza et al. (2007); Global Material Flows Database; Global Resources Outlook (UNEP 2023a); OECD (2022).
  • Most severe global risk of the next two years — disinformation — World Economic Forum (2024). Global Risks Report.
  • 14,000+ non-state actors committed to halve emissions by 2030 — UN Race to Zero Campaign (2023).
  • "It really boils down to this: all life is interrelated…" — Martin Luther King Jr. (1967). Christmas Sermon on Peace, Ebenezer Baptist Church, Atlanta.
  • "The Earth turns to Gold, in the hands of the wise" — Jalāl al-Dīn Rūmī (13th century); the verse appears in the English rendering quoted in the UNEP report's closing section.

This interactive is an interpretation, not a replacement. Read the full report for the complete argument, methodology appendix, SDG-mapping annex and every citation. → navigating_new_horizons.pdf

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Act VIII · Coda

“The Earth turns to Gold,
in the hands of the wise.”
— Jalāl al-Dīn Rūmī · 1207–1273

Past generations made decisions without considering their consequences for futures they would never see — fossil fuels, single-use plastics, lead, mercury. No one can travel back to warn them.

Foresight is the modern tool of the wise: a structured, multi-disciplinary way to notice the signals of change before they escalate. Humanity is the one species that has evolved to the point where it can affect natural processes on a planetary scale — and so it bears a unique responsibility to look forward.

Change is inevitable. The decisions we make today will shape a future that works for everyone, everywhere — or for almost no one at all.

Based on Navigating New Horizons — A global foresight report on planetary health and human wellbeing · UNEP & International Science Council (2024). All data points, signal definitions and survey statistics sourced directly from the report. This interactive is an interpretation, not a replacement. Read the full report.