Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research · Global Commons Alliance · Earth Commission

Planetary Tipping Systems

We had the privilege of designing Johan Rockström’s TED Talk, where he provided a critical and up-to-date assessment of the state of our planet. As we approach the midpoint of the 2020s—a decade widely recognized as the most decisive in the fight against climate change—the urgency to take action has never been greater. Johan Rockström, a leading climate scientist and director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, delivers the latest scientific evaluation of Earth’s current condition and emphasizes that preserving our planet’s resilience requires more than just individual efforts—it demands systemic change on a global scale.

August 2024. We’re nearly halfway through the 2020s, dubbed the most decisive decade for action on climate change. Where exactly do things stand? Climate impact scholar Johan Rockström offers the most up-to-date scientific assessment of the state of the planet and explains what must be done to preserve Earth’s resilience to human pressure.

Over the last couple of years, we have collaborated with the researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Global Commons Alliance and the Earth Commission in order to effectively visualize and convey the tipping elements of the Earth System.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):

Tipping points refer to critical thresholds in a system that, when exceeded, can lead to a significant change in the state of the system, often with an understanding that the change is irreversible.

Climate Tipping Points (CTPs) are a critical concern in climate change discussions. They happen when large parts of the climate system reach a point where they begin to change uncontrollably, leading to significant impacts like sea level rise, loss of diverse ecosystems, and carbon release from melting permafrost. Researchers have been reassessing the different CTPs and working to better understand their potential consequences, as well as ways to predict and prevent them. This is important because even the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5-2°C might not be enough to prevent crossing multiple tipping points.

Recent science now recognizes approximately 25 tipping systems in Earth’s climate, up from the 16 originally assessed in 2022. The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 confirms that coral reefs are the first tipping point confirmed as crossed, while the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets may have already passed their thresholds. Under current policies (~2.8°C), there is roughly a 62% average probability of triggering major tipping points. The warming rate has accelerated six-fold — from 0.05°C per decade in the early 20th century to 0.31°C per decade today. Crossing one tipping point can cascade into others, potentially committing the planet to several metres of sea level rise, rainforest dieback, and disrupted ocean circulation. Explore all tipping systems in the interactive dashboard.

As the world is currently heading towards 2-3°C of global warming, there is a strong need for urgent action to mitigate climate change and avoid crossing multiple tipping points.

Special thanks to Maya Rebermark, Wendy Broadgate, David Armstrong McKay, Tim Kelly, Owen Gaffney and Johan Rockström.

The Tipping Elements

Climate tipping elements are components of the Earth’s climate system that can undergo abrupt and irreversible changes due to human-induced global warming. Here are some main climate tipping elements:

• Arctic Sea Ice

  The Arctic has been warming at nearly four times the global average rate, with summer sea ice declining by approximately 13% per decade since 1979. September 2012 saw record-low extent, and models project ice-free Septembers will become common beyond 2°C. While summer sea ice loss responds linearly to warming, winter sea ice collapse at ~4.5°C exhibits abrupt threshold behavior — a distinction critical for tipping point assessment.

• Greenland Ice Sheet

  The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate, with the threshold for irreversible collapse revised downward to as low as 0.8°C — potentially already within reach at current warming. Full collapse would contribute ~7 metres of sea-level rise. The melt-elevation feedback makes loss self-sustaining: as the ice surface descends into warmer air, it melts faster, unable to regrow until temperatures drop well below the threshold at which collapse began.

• West Antarctic Ice Sheet

  New research reveals Antarctica is not one giant on/off switch but rather a control panel of 18 separate basins, each with its own threshold. At current warming (~1.3°C), three West Antarctic basins — Thwaites/Pine Island, Ross West, and Ronne — have already crossed their critical thresholds, committing approximately 2.1 metres of long-term sea-level rise. The grounding line of Thwaites Glacier is retreating at ~1 km per year, and eventual collapse may already be inevitable.

• Amazon Rainforest

  The Amazon has experienced two consecutive years of severe drought (2023–24), pushing the forest closer to its tipping point. A 2024 study found that the compound boundary — combining warming, deforestation, and drought — may be as low as 1.5°C, far below the warming-only estimate of 2–6°C. Approximately 40% of the Amazon exists in a bistable state where it could tip from rainforest to degraded savanna. New research reveals that AMOC weakening sends extra dry-season rain to the Southern Amazon, offsetting ~17% of observed drying — but this stabilizing link is lost if the forest degrades first.

• Boreal Forests

  Boreal forests are experiencing intensifying wildfires, with the area burned increasing dramatically. Canada’s 2023 wildfire season burned over 18 million hectares — six times the historical average. Rising temperatures drive bark beetle outbreaks and fire, creating self-reinforcing feedbacks that destabilize the southern forest edge.

• Coral Reefs

  Coral reefs are now confirmed as the first tipping point to have been crossed. The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 recognizes that the central tipping threshold of 1.2°C has been surpassed at current warming. The worst mass bleaching event on record occurred between 2023 and 2025, affecting every major reef system on Earth. Under current policies, the probability of triggering this tipping point exceeds 90%. Near-total loss of tropical coral reefs is projected at 2°C of warming.

• Permafrost

  Permafrost contains approximately 1,035 gigatonnes of carbon. New research warns that even a temporary temperature overshoot could increase permafrost tipping risks by up to 72%, making the pace of near-term warming as critical as its peak. Abrupt thaw processes — thermokarst lake formation and slope collapse — could increase emissions by 50–100% beyond gradual projections, and the ‘compost bomb’ instability means decomposition generates its own heat, continuing even if surface warming ceases.

• Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

  A landmark 2025 study demonstrated AMOC collapse for the first time in a strongly eddying ocean model, confirming that ocean eddies — which some had hoped might prevent collapse — do not. The circulation weakened by 75% over approximately 100 years, causing up to 8°C of North Atlantic cooling and +44 cm of sea-level rise along the US East Coast. The AMOC is now understood to be involved in 45% of all assessed tipping interactions, making it the most interconnected element in the climate system.

Visualising Planetary Risk

We have devoted significant effort to portraying the worldwide scope of climate tipping systems by engaging in an extensive research and development process and refining our approach through multiple data-driven iterations. This process has allowed us to enhance our understanding of these critical elements and present a comprehensive view of their interconnected nature and potential impacts on our planet.

We have created data visualizations illustrating the planetary tipping points for the Global Commons Alliance, showcasing the critical thresholds and interconnectedness of Earth’s climate system components.

Talks & Videos

2023 · World Economic Forum