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Stockholm Resilience Centre

The Great Acceleration

The Great Acceleration is a term used to describe the rapid and widespread increase in human activity and its impact on Earth's natural systems, which began around the mid-20th century. It is often associated with the Anthropocene epoch, a proposed geological era marked by significant human influence on the Earth's ecosystems and climate. The Great Acceleration encompasses various social, economic, and environmental changes that have occurred on a global scale since the 1950s.

During the Great Acceleration, remarkable socioeconomic and Earth system trends have been observed. Global population has surged from approximately 2.5 billion in 1950 to nearly 8 billion by 2021, and the urban population has increased from 29% in 1950 to around 56% in 2021. The world GDP has grown from $9 trillion in 1950 to over $84 trillion in 2021 (in constant 2011 US dollars). Alongside these trends, earth system changes have accelerated, with atmospheric CO2 concentrations rising from 310 ppm in 1950 to over 410 ppm by 2021. The global average temperature has increased by approximately 1.2°C since the pre-industrial era, and the rate of species extinction is estimated to be 100-1,000 times higher than the background rate. Furthermore, plastic production has skyrocketed from 2 million metric tons in 1950 to over 360 million metric tons in 2021, and the global use of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilisers has risen dramatically, contributing to water pollution and eutrophication.

Reference: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053019614564785

Abstract:
The ‘Great Acceleration’ graphs, originally published in 2004 to show socioeconomic and Earth System trends from 1750 to 2000, have now been updated to 2010. In the graphs of socioeconomic trends, where the data permit, the activity of the wealthy (OECD) countries, those countries with emerging economies, and the rest of the world have now been differentiated. The dominant feature of the socioeconomic trends is that the economic activity of the human enterprise continues to grow at a rapid rate. However, the differentiated graphs clearly show that strong equity issues are masked by considering global aggregates only. Most of the population growth since 1950 has been in the non-OECD world but the world’s economy (GDP), and hence consumption, is still strongly dominated by the OECD world. The Earth System indicators, in general, continued their long-term, post-industrial rise, although a few, such as atmospheric methane concentration and stratospheric ozone loss, showed a slowing or apparent stabilisation over the past decade. The post-1950 acceleration in the Earth System indicators remains clear. Only beyond the mid-20th century is there clear evidence for fundamental shifts in the state and functioning of the Earth System that are beyond the range of variability of the Holocene and driven by human activities. Thus, of all the candidates for a start date for the Anthropocene, the beginning of the Great Acceleration is by far the most convincing from an Earth System science perspective.

The 12 socioeconomic indicators and 12 Earth system indicators presented in the paper are meant to illustrate the rapid changes that occurred during the Great Acceleration.

Socioeconomic Trends:

  • The global human population, which increased from about 2.5 billion in 1950 to over 7 billion in 2011.

  • The growth of the global economy, with world GDP increasing around six-fold between 1950 and 2010.

  • The globalization of the economy, with FDI stocks surging from less than 1% of GDP in 1950 to nearly 35% in 2010.

  • The process of urbanization, with the urban population increasing from around 30% in 1950 to over 50% in 2010.

  • The consumption of energy resources, which more than quadrupled between 1950 and 2010.

  • The increase in agricultural inputs, with global fertilizer use rising from about 14 million tonnes in 1950 to over 200 million tonnes in 2010.

  • The construction of dams for various purposes, with the number of large dams rising from around 5,000 in 1950 to over 45,000 in 2010.

  • The increase in freshwater withdrawals, which more than doubled between 1950 and 2010.

  • The growth in paper consumption, which increased from about 50 million tonnes in 1950 to over 400 million tonnes in 2010.

  • The rise in motor vehicle production, which grew from around 15 million in 1950 to over 60 million in 2010.

  • The expansion of telecommunications, with the number of telephone subscriptions increasing from around 70 million in 1950 to over 6 billion in 2010.

  • The growth in international tourism, which increased from about 25 million tourist arrivals in 1950 to over 1 billion in 2010.

Earth System Trends:

  • Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased from about 310 ppm (parts per million) in 1950 to over 400 ppm in 2015.

  • Nitrous oxide concentrations rose from around 285 ppb in 1950 to about 330 ppb in 2015.

  • Methane concentrations have increased from approximately 1100 ppb (parts per billion) in 1950 to around 1800 ppb in 2015.

  • Ozone depletion over Antarctica reached its maximum in the early 1990s, with a 60% reduction in ozone concentration compared to pre-1980 levels.

  • Land temperatures warmed faster than global averages, reaching about 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels.

  • Since the 1950s, surface ocean pH has decreased by approximately 0.1 units, indicating a 26% increase in acidity.

  • Increased from around 19 million tons in 1950 to a peak of approximately 90 million tons in the late 1990s, before slightly declining to around 80 million tons by 2015.

  • Increased from under 1 million tons in the 1950s to over 6 million tons by the early 2000s.

  • Human-induced nitrogen fixation has more than doubled the natural rate, with over 150 Tg N/yr (teragrams of nitrogen per year) being fixed by 2015.

  • Between 2000 and 2012, approximately 2.3 million km² of tropical forest was lost, an area roughly the size of Mexico.

  • Occupied around 12% of Earth's ice-free land area in the mid-20th century, with an increasing trend towards 15% by 2015.

  • A significant reduction in terrestrial net primary production (NPP) of approximately 13-17% since preindustrial times, largely due to land use change and deforestation.

The Great Acceleration encompasses an extensive range of human activities, influencing both individual experiences and the broader fabric of society. This all-encompassing phenomenon has left a lasting impact on various aspects of civilisation.

Now, let's dive into some numerical insights that serve to illuminate just a fraction of the vast, transformative historical juncture we find ourselves in. These statistics will help further make the point that we are in a significant period in human history. Ready? Take a deep breath!

  • Weapon Age 🔫

    In the 1950s, the global arms trade was valued at approximately $7–10 billion. By 2022, this surged to around $100 billion, with the U.S. and Russia dominating exports.

    • Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), “Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2022.”

    • Congressional Research Service, “Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 2014–2021,” December 2022.

    Depressive Age 😞

    In the 1950s, depression treatment was limited, and the market for antidepressants was almost non-existent. By 2021, the global antidepressant market reached approximately $14.3 billion, reflecting the growing use and awareness of mental health treatments.

    • Grand View Research, “Antidepressant Drugs Market Size & Share Report, 2021–2028.”

    Entertainment Age 🎮🎬

    In 1950, video games did not exist; by 2021, the video game industry was valued at around $175 billion, and global box office revenue for films reached about $42 billion in pre-pandemic 2019.

    • Newzoo, “Global Games Market Report 2021.”

    • Motion Picture Association, “Theme Report 2019.”

    Female Age 👩

    In 1950, around 70 countries allowed women to vote. Today, nearly all countries—over 190—have granted suffrage to women.

    • International IDEA, “Women’s Suffrage: A World Chronology of the Recognition of Women’s Rights to Vote and to Stand for Election.”

    • UN Women, “Women’s Political Participation.”

    Globalization Age 🌐

    In the 1950s, there were fewer than 100 multilateral treaties. Today, over 560 multilateral treaties have been ratified under the United Nations alone.

    • United Nations Treaty Collection, “Overview of Multilateral Treaties Deposited with the Secretary-General.”

    • United Nations, “Status of Treaties Deposited with the Secretary-General,” 2023.

    Digital Age 💻

    In the 1950s, computers could perform around 17,000 instructions per second. By 2023, supercomputers like Frontier perform over 1 exaflop (1 quintillion calculations per second).

    • Computer History Museum, “Timeline of Computer History.”

    • TOP500, “Top 500 Supercomputer Sites,” June 2023.

    Conservation Age 🌳

    Protected areas covered less than 3% of global land in 1950, expanding to over 17% by 2021, with around 8% of oceans now protected.

    • United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), “Protected Planet Report 2020.”

    • Marine Conservation Institute, “MPAtlas,” 2021.

    Atomic Age ☢️

    In the 1950s, there were fewer than 20 radionuclides in use. Today, over 250 radionuclides are used across medicine and industry.

    • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), “Radioisotopes in Medicine.”

    • World Nuclear Association, “Radioisotopes in Industry,” 2022.

    Protectionism Age 🧱

    Border walls and barriers have proliferated since the 1950s, with at least 70 new barriers built since 2000. In 1950, border walls were rare, with only a few existing globally. By 2023, over 70 new barriers have been constructed since 2000, although they cover less than 20% of global borders.

    • Élisabeth Vallet (Ed.), “Borders, Fences and Walls: State of Insecurity?” Routledge, 2016.

    • Jones, R., “Violent Borders: Refugees and the Right to Move,” Verso, 2016.

    Fast-Market Age 🍔☕

    McDonald’s grew from a single restaurant in 1940 to over 39,000 locations by 2023, with other chains like Starbucks exceeding 34,000 stores globally.

    • McDonald’s Corporation, “Company Fact Sheet,” 2023.

    • Starbucks Corporation, “Fiscal Year 2022 Annual Report.”

    Chemical Age 🧪

    Over 350,000 new chemicals have been created since 1950, and global chemical sales have increased from around $171 billion in 1970 to approximately $4 trillion in 2017. Fertilizer use rose from about 14 million tons in 1950 to over 100 million tons by 2020, with significant growth in synthetic chemical production.

    • American Chemical Society (ACS), “CAS REGISTRY and CAS Registry Number FAQs.”

    • Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), “FAOSTAT Database,” 2020.

    Virtual Age 🌐📱

    In 1950, global communications were primarily by post or telephone. By 2023, social media platforms like Facebook have billions of users, with Facebook alone having over 2.91 billion active users.

    • Meta Platforms, Inc., “Facebook Reports Third Quarter 2021 Results.”

    • Statista, “Most Popular Social Networks Worldwide as of October 2021.”

    Atheism Age 🤔

    In the 1950s, less than 1% of the global population identified as atheist. By 2023, about 16% of people identify as non-religious or atheist.

    • Pew Research Center, “The Changing Global Religious Landscape,” 2017.

    • Gallup International, “Global Survey on Religion,” 2020.

    Information Age 📚

    In the 1950s, approximately 300,000 scientific papers were published annually, compared to over 2.5 million papers published per year by 2020.

    • Johnson, R., et al., “The STM Report: An Overview of Scientific and Scholarly Publishing,” 2021.

    • International Association of Scientific, Technical and Medical Publishers, “STM Global Brief 2021.”

    Sustainable Age 🌞💨

    In 1950, renewable energy investments were minimal. In 2021, global renewable energy investments exceeded $366 billion, with significant growth in sustainable energy patents.

    • BloombergNEF, “Energy Transition Investment Trends 2022.”

    • International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), “Renewable Energy Patents,” 2021.

    Phenotypical Age 🏃‍♂️🏅

    Olympic records in the 1950s have been surpassed by today’s athletes, though improvements are often less than 15–20%, depending on the event.

    • International Olympic Committee, “Olympic Records.”

    • World Athletics, “World Records Progression.”

    Luxury Age 💎

    In the 1950s, global diamond production was about 40 million carats annually. By 2021, production reached approximately 120 million carats. The luxury market has grown significantly since 1950.

    • Kimberley Process, “Annual Global Summary: 2021 Production.”

    • Bain & Company, “Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study, Fall–Winter 2021.”

    Pharmaceutical Age 💊

    The global pharmaceutical market has grown from around $1 billion in 1950 to approximately $1.42 trillion in 2022, driven by blockbuster drugs and increasing global healthcare demands.

    • IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science, “The Global Use of Medicines 2023.”

    • Statista, “Global Pharmaceutical Market Revenue 2001–2022.”

    Resource Production ⚙️

    Plastic production has skyrocketed from 1.5 million tons in 1950 to around 368 million tons in 2019. Steel production increased from 189 million metric tons in 1950 to approximately 1.86 billion metric tons in 2020. Cement production rose from an estimated 133 million tons in 1950 to around 4.5 billion tons in 2021. Iron ore extraction increased from 280 million tons in 1950 to around 2.5 billion tons in 2019. Nickel extraction went from 100,000 metric tons in 1950 to 2.5 million metric tons in 2020, while lithium extraction grew from 2,000 metric tons in 1950 to 82,000 metric tons in 2020.

    • U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), “Mineral Commodity Summaries,” various years.

    • Our World in Data, “Plastic Pollution.”

    • World Steel Association, “World Steel in Figures 2021.”

    Energy Consumption ⚡️

    Oil production increased from around 10 million barrels per day in 1950 to approximately 90 million barrels per day in 2021. Coal production grew from 2.2 billion tons in 1950 to around 7.9 billion tons in 2019, and natural gas production rose from around 170 billion cubic meters in 1950 to approximately 4 trillion cubic meters in 2019. The share of renewable energy in global energy consumption increased from 1% in 1965 to 11.4% in 2019, and the number of nuclear power plants in operation reached around 440 reactors by 2021.

    • BP, “Statistical Review of World Energy 2020.”

    • World Nuclear Association, “Nuclear Power in the World Today.”

    • International Energy Agency (IEA), “Renewables 2020.”

    Beverage Production ☕️🍵🍷🍺

    Coffee production increased from 43 million bags in 1950 to around 169 million bags in 2020. Tea production increased from 1.2 million metric tons in 1950 to 6.2 million metric tons in 2019, while wine production rose from 130 million hectoliters in 1950 to around 260 million hectoliters in 2019. Beer production grew from 500 million hectoliters in 1950 to around 1.9 billion hectoliters in 2019.

    • International Coffee Organization (ICO), “Historical Data on the Global Coffee Trade.”

    • Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), “FAOSTAT Database,” 2020.

    • BarthHaas Group, “The Barth Report Hops 2019/2020.”

    Consumer Goods Production 🧸👖

    Over 600 billion Lego bricks have been produced since their introduction in 1949, with 60 billion bricks manufactured in 2019 alone. Jeans production has surged since the 1950s, with an estimated 1.2 billion pairs of jeans produced annually in recent years.

    • The LEGO Group, “Annual Report 2019.”

    • FashionUnited, “Global Denim Market Report 2020.”

    > Additional references as the bottom of this page
    > We recommend checking out The Human Impact Database and its fascinating snapshots

In fact, as of 2020, the human-made mass surpassed the global biomass, with the former estimated at around 1.1 teratonnes and the latter at approximately 1 teratonne. Notably, anthropogenic mass has doubled roughly every 20 years, and the transition point occurred in 2013. In contrast, the total human-made mass in 1900 was a mere 3% of the world's biomass, signifying a dramatic increase over a century.

Human-made mass mainly consists of concrete, aggregates, bricks, asphalt, metals, and plastics, with concrete and aggregates making up over 85% of the total mass. While overall biomass has remained relatively stable since the early 20th century, its composition has undergone significant changes, such as an 85% decrease in wild mammals' mass and a 13-fold increase in domesticated poultry. Remarkably, humans produce a quantity of anthropogenic mass equivalent to the global human population's weight every week.

REFERENCE
Elhacham, E., Ben-Uri, L., Grozovski, J. et al. Global human-made mass exceeds all living biomass. Nature 588, 442–444 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-3010-5

The Great Shift.
The Great Acceleration has the potential to result in the most significant economic transition in history—this remains an open question.

Beginning in 2007, the number of people residing in urban areas has surpassed those living in non-urban regions. This significant transformation in population distribution reflects the swift urbanization taking place across the globe.

Presented here is a modest assortment of intricate cityscapes, showcasing urban areas as a significant force behind the Great Acceleration.

Despite being identified by a single name, these perspectives include a variety of city centres and conurbations. Explore at will! Observe how these patterns align with topographical and aquatic elements, for example.

Feel free to let us know if you'd like to explore further such perspectives.

The Great Acceleration can be viewed, in numerous ways, as a period of Great Improvement. Over the past 70 years, a multitude of aspects have significantly improved, and it is crucial to share this narrative. Some key areas of progress during this time include:

  1. Life Expectancy
    Over the past 100 years, global life expectancy has increased dramatically, nearly doubling from around 40 years in the early 20th century to around 73 years today. This improvement is due to better healthcare, improved living conditions, and increased access to clean water and sanitation.

  1. Child Mortality
    Child mortality rates have fallen significantly worldwide. In 1800, almost every second child died before reaching the age of five. Today, the global child mortality rate has dropped to around 4%, thanks to advancements in healthcare, nutrition, and vaccination programs.

  2. Education
    Literacy rates and access to education have increased significantly over the past century. In 1900, only around 10% of the world population was literate, whereas today, the global literacy rate is around 86%. This progress has led to a more educated and skilled global workforce, contributing to economic development and improved quality of life.

  3. Poverty
    Extreme poverty has been reduced substantially in the last 100 years. In 1820, about 85% of the global population lived in extreme poverty, defined as living on less than $1.90 a day. Just let that sink in for a moment! Today, less than 10% of the world's population lives in extreme poverty, a remarkable achievement that has improved the lives of billions of people.

  4. Gender Equality
    While there is still much work to be done, gender equality has improved significantly over the past century. Women have gained the right to vote, access to education, and increased representation in the workforce and politics. These achievements have contributed to a more equitable and inclusive world.

  5. Democracy
    The number of democratic countries has increased dramatically over the past 100 years, with a majority of the world's population now living in democratic societies. This has led to improved human rights, greater political stability, and increased social and economic development.

Positive Trajectories
Over the past century, humanity has made remarkable progress in various aspects of life, with global life expectancy nearly doubling, child mortality rates dropping to 4%, literacy rates rising to 86%, extreme poverty reducing to less than 10%, and significant strides in gender equality, democracy, and environmental protection.
Source: Gapminder.org | Another useful chart: Our World in Data

Great Acceleration Event Array (GAEA)

The Great Acceleration Event Array (GAEA) is a term used to describe a collection of globally synchronous, abrupt, and unprecedented changes in various Earth systems that have occurred since the mid-20th century. The GAEA is characterized by a wide range of anthropogenic markers, including increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide and methane), shifts in carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios, the presence of novel materials (e.g., plastics and synthetic organic compounds), and changes in biological systems (e.g., increased species extinction rates and the spread of invasive species).

The GAEA is considered a defining feature of the proposed Anthropocene Epoch, a new geological time unit that recognizes the significant impact of human activities on the Earth system. The abrupt and global nature of the changes associated with the GAEA distinguishes it from the more gradual and localized changes that occurred during the preceding Holocene Epoch.

GAEA Anthropogenic Markers:

  • Carbon dioxide: Rapid rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since the mid-20th century.

  • Carbon isotope excursion δ13C (CO2): Shift in carbon isotope ratios due to fossil fuel burning.

  • Spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCP): Microscopic particles from high-temperature coal or oil combustion.

  • Spherical aluminosilicates and mullite: Markers of coal combustion in power plants.

  • Black carbon soot: Product of incomplete fossil fuel combustion, especially from motor vehicles.

  • High Molecular Weight polyaromatic hydrocarbons: Compounds from fossil fuel combustion.

  • Sulfur: Increased abundance due to industrial emissions.

  • Lead: Elevated levels from gasoline additives, mining, and coal burning.

  • Copper: Increased concentrations from mining, industrial processes, and fossil fuel burning.

  • Zinc: Higher abundance due to mining, industrial processes, and fossil fuel burning.

  • Mercury: Elevated levels from mining, fossil fuel burning, and industrial processes.

  • Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs): Synthetic organic compounds used in various industrial applications.

  • Microplastics: Small plastic particles derived from the breakdown of larger plastic debris or microbeads.

  • Radiocarbon: Distinct "bomb spike" caused by atmospheric nuclear weapons testing.

  • Plutonium: Rare naturally, but present due to nuclear weapons testing and nuclear accidents.

  • Iodine (129I): Increased levels from nuclear weapons testing and nuclear accidents.

  • Nitrates: Elevated concentrations from agricultural fertilizers and fossil fuel combustion.

  • Nitrogen isotope excursion: Shift in nitrogen isotope ratios due to fertilizer use and fossil fuel combustion.

  • Methane: Rising atmospheric concentrations from agriculture, fossil fuel extraction, and other anthropogenic sources.

  • Organochlorine pesticides (e.g., DDT): Synthetic pesticides widely used in agriculture.

  • Black carbon char or charcoal: Residue from biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion.

  • Oxygen isotope excursion: Shift in oxygen isotope ratios due to global warming.

  • Large mammals: Increased extinction rates and population declines.

  • Vascular plants: Increased rates of species introductions and translocations.

  • Vertebrates: Elevated rates of species introductions and translocations.

  • Invertebrates: Higher rates of species introductions and translocations.

  • Domesticates: Rapid increase in the global population of domesticated animals since the mid-20th century.

REFERENCES

Plastic production: PlasticsEurope (2019). Plastics – the Facts 2019. Retrieved from https://www.plasticseurope.org/application/files/9715/7129/9584/FINAL_web_version_Plastics_the_facts2019_14102019.pdf

Steel production: World Steel Association (2020). World Steel in Figures 2020. Retrieved from https://www.worldsteel.org/en/dam/jcr:f9355bce-5d3a-4fbc-8d1e-bb67a3edd5e8/World+Steel+in+Figures+2020.pdf

Concrete production: U.S. Geological Survey (2021). Cement Statistics and Information. Retrieved from https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/cement-statistics-and-information

Iron extraction: U.S. Geological Survey (2021). Iron Ore Statistics and Information. Retrieved from https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/iron-ore-statistics-and-information

Nickel extraction: U.S. Geological Survey (2021). Nickel Statistics and Information. Retrieved from https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/nickel-statistics-and-information

Lithium extraction: U.S. Geological Survey (2021). Lithium Statistics and Information. Retrieved from https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/lithium-statistics-and-information

Nitrogen: Our World in Data (2019). Fertilizer Consumption. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fertilizer-use

Phosphorus: U.S. Geological Survey (2021). Phosphate Rock Statistics and Information. Retrieved from https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/phosphate-rock-statistics-and-information

Border walls and barriers: BBC (2018). World divided: Mapping the barrier. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-45492913

Immigration: United Nations (2021). International Migrant Stock. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates21.asp

Social media users: Statista (2021). Number of monthly active Facebook users worldwide as of 3rd quarter 2021. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/

Oil production: U.S. Energy Information Administration (2021). International Energy Statistics. Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world

Coal production: BP (2021). Statistical Review of World Energy. Retrieved from https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf

Natural gas production: U.S. Energy Information Administration (2021). International Energy Statistics. Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world

Renewable energies: BP (2021). Statistical Review of World Energy. Retrieved from https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf

Nuclear power plants: World Nuclear Association (2021). World Nuclear Power Reactors & Uranium Requirements. Retrieved from https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/facts-and-figures/world-nuclear-power-reactors-and-uranium-requireme.aspx

Jeans:

Coffee:

Tea:

Beer:

Books:

Wine:

New chemicals: