How many tipping points have been crossed?

The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 confirms coral reefs as the first tipping point crossed. At current warming of approximately 1.47°C, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets may have already passed their thresholds, and AMOC collapse cannot be excluded. Under current policies (~2.8°C), there is a roughly 62% average probability of triggering major tipping points.

What happens when tipping points are crossed?

When a tipping point is crossed, the affected system undergoes a self-reinforcing transition that can be difficult or impossible to reverse. Consequences can include metres of sea-level rise (ice sheet collapse), large-scale ecosystem loss (rainforest dieback), and disrupted weather patterns (ocean circulation changes). Crossing one tipping point can cascade into others.

Interactive Dashboard

Planetary Tipping Systems

Q: What are climate tipping points?

Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth’s climate system where a small additional change in temperature triggers a self-perpetuating, often irreversible shift to a new state. Examples include the collapse of ice sheets, dieback of the Amazon rainforest, and disruption of ocean circulation patterns.

Explore ~25 tipping systems — temperature thresholds, risk levels, cascade networks & interconnections

Last updated: March 2, 2026

With the support of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth’s climate system where a small additional change triggers a self-perpetuating, often irreversible shift to a new state. Science now recognizes approximately 25 tipping systems—from collapsing ice sheets to dying coral reefs—with temperature thresholds that may be crossed at current warming levels (~1.47°C). Coral reefs are confirmed as the first tipping point crossed. Under current policies, there is roughly a 62% average probability of triggering major tipping points. Crossing one can cascade into others, potentially committing the planet to several metres of sea level rise, rainforest dieback, and disrupted ocean circulation.

See for full references and methodology.

Legend

Current Warming (1.47°C) Threshold Range Central Estimate

Cascade Network

How crossing one tipping point can trigger others. The AMOC sits at the centre — involved in 45% of all known interactions.

Hover a dot to see details

Destabilizing Stabilizing Ambiguous Research Frontier

Overshoot Risk Explorer

How many tipping elements are at risk for a given peak warming and overshoot duration?

Based on Ritchie et al. (2026). Each cell shows how many of 12 tipping elements would likely tip at that peak warming sustained for that duration. Fast elements (coral reefs, permafrost) respond to short overshoots; slow elements (ice sheets) require sustained warming.

Duration (years)

Peak warming above pre-industrial (°C)

Elements at risk:

Paris 1.5°C target Current policies (~2.5°C)

Ritchie, P.D.L., Steinert, N.J., et al. (2026). The implications of overshooting 1.5°C on Earth system tipping elements — a review. Environ. Res. Lett. 21, 043001. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad

Antarctic Ice Basin Tipping Risks

18 drainage basins analyzed for critical temperature thresholds and long-term sea-level commitments

Winkelmann, R., Garbe, J., Donges, J.F. & Albrecht, T. (2026). Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02554-0

Total committed sea-level rise from all 18 Antarctic basins at tipping thresholds: ~50 m (total Antarctic ice volume: ~60 m SLE). At current warming (1.3°C), three West Antarctic basins — Thwaites/Pine Island, Ross West, and Ronne — have already crossed their critical thresholds, committing approximately 2.1 m of long-term sea-level rise. At 2°C (Paris Agreement target), the Wilkes Subglacial Basin (Cook, Ninnis, Mertz) also crosses, adding another ~1.2 m. By 3°C, Totten/Moscow (Aurora Subglacial Basin) tips — the single highest-impact threshold, committing 3.5 m. Ice loss is driven primarily by marine ice-sheet instability (MISI): once grounding lines retreat past a critical point, ice discharge accelerates in a self-amplifying feedback that can be irreversible on human timescales. Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI) is not included in the modelling — if triggered, losses could be faster. Reversal requires cooling at least one degree below pre-industrial: these changes are effectively one-way doors. Response times range from centuries to millennia.

Threshold temperature

1°C3°C5°C7°C9°C

Region WAIS EAIS Antarctic Peninsula

Current warming 1.3°C above pre-industrial — already past threshold for several West Antarctic basins

Select a basin from the list or map to see details

About & Sources

Overview

This interactive dashboard visualizes ~25 tipping systems in Earth's climate, including 17 quantified elements with temperature thresholds and several emerging systems under active research. Data draws on the landmark Armstrong McKay et al. (2022) assessment, the Global Tipping Points Report 2025, and multiple subsequent studies that have refined thresholds, probabilities, and interconnections.

The dashboard features threshold visualizations, composable risk/timescale filters, a 3D globe, an Overshoot Risk Explorer heatmap, Antarctic basin-level analysis, and a cascade network diagram showing how crossing one tipping point can trigger others.

Methodology

Risk levels are assigned based on proximity of current warming (~1.47°C) to the element's threshold range: crossed (central estimate surpassed), critical (current warming within threshold range), high (lower bound near current warming), increasing (approaching range), low (well above current warming).

Tipping probabilities are from Deutloff, Held & Lenton (2025), using a 5,000-member Monte Carlo ensemble with FaIR and the Conceptual Tipping Elements Model under SSP2-4.5 (~2.8°C by 2100), representing currently implemented policies.

Interconnections are compiled from Wunderling et al. (2024), Hogner et al. (2025), Loriani et al. (2025), and Sinet et al. (2025). Effect types are classified as destabilizing (increases tipping risk), stabilizing (reduces tipping risk), or ambiguous.

Data Sources

Armstrong McKay, D.I., et al. (2022). Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science, 377(6611), eabn7950. doi:10.1126/science.abn7950
Ripple, W.J., et al. (2026). The risk of a hothouse Earth trajectory. One Earth, 9, 101565. doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101565
Ritchie, P.D.L., et al. (2026). The implications of overshooting 1.5°C on Earth system tipping elements. Environ. Res. Lett. 21, 043001. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad
Winkelmann, R., et al. (2026). Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02554-0
Loriani, S., et al. (2025). Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations. Earth Syst. Dynam. 16, 1611–1653. doi:10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025
van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. & Dijkstra, H.A. (2025). AMOC collapse in a strongly eddying model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 52, e2024GL114532. doi:10.1029/2024GL114532
Hogner, A., et al. (2025). Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest. PIK / Princeton / IIASA.
Deutloff, J., Held, H. & Lenton, T.M. (2025). High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies. Earth Syst. Dynam. 16, 565–583. doi:10.5194/esd-16-565-2025
Global Tipping Points Report 2025. Lenton, T.M., et al. (eds). University of Exeter. global-tipping-points.org
Flores, B.M., et al. (2024). Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system. Nature 626, 555–564. doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0
Wunderling, N., et al. (2024). Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review. Earth Syst. Dynam. 15, 41–66. doi:10.5194/esd-15-41-2024
Boulton, C.A., et al. (2025). Destabilization of Earth system tipping elements. Nature Geoscience. doi:10.1038/s41561-025-01787-0
Sinet, S., et al. (2025). Meltwater from WAIS tipping affects AMOC resilience. Science Advances 11(46), eadw3852. doi:10.1126/sciadv.adw3852

Acknowledgements

With the support of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Data visualization by GLOBAÏA.