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Stockholm Resilience Centre

The Great Acceleration

The Great Acceleration is a term used to describe the rapid and widespread increase in human activity and its impact on Earth's natural systems, which began around the mid-20th century. It is often associated with the Anthropocene epoch, a proposed geological era marked by significant human influence on the Earth's ecosystems and climate. The Great Acceleration encompasses various social, economic, and environmental changes that have occurred on a global scale since the 1950s.

During the Great Acceleration, remarkable socio-economic and earth system trends have been observed. Global population has surged from approximately 2.5 billion in 1950 to nearly 8 billion by 2021, and the urban population has increased from 29% in 1950 to around 56% in 2021. The world GDP has grown from $9 trillion in 1950 to over $84 trillion in 2021 (in constant 2011 US dollars). Alongside these trends, earth system changes have accelerated, with atmospheric CO2 concentrations rising from 310 ppm in 1950 to over 410 ppm by 2021. The global average temperature has increased by approximately 1.2°C since the pre-industrial era, and the rate of species extinction is estimated to be 100-1,000 times higher than the background rate. Furthermore, plastic production has skyrocketed from 2 million metric tons in 1950 to over 360 million metric tons in 2021, and the global use of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilisers has risen dramatically, contributing to water pollution and eutrophication.

Reference: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053019614564785

Abstract:
The ‘Great Acceleration’ graphs, originally published in 2004 to show socio-economic and Earth System trends from 1750 to 2000, have now been updated to 2010. In the graphs of socio-economic trends, where the data permit, the activity of the wealthy (OECD) countries, those countries with emerging economies, and the rest of the world have now been differentiated. The dominant feature of the socio-economic trends is that the economic activity of the human enterprise continues to grow at a rapid rate. However, the differentiated graphs clearly show that strong equity issues are masked by considering global aggregates only. Most of the population growth since 1950 has been in the non-OECD world but the world’s economy (GDP), and hence consumption, is still strongly dominated by the OECD world. The Earth System indicators, in general, continued their long-term, post-industrial rise, although a few, such as atmospheric methane concentration and stratospheric ozone loss, showed a slowing or apparent stabilisation over the past decade. The post-1950 acceleration in the Earth System indicators remains clear. Only beyond the mid-20th century is there clear evidence for fundamental shifts in the state and functioning of the Earth System that are beyond the range of variability of the Holocene and driven by human activities. Thus, of all the candidates for a start date for the Anthropocene, the beginning of the Great Acceleration is by far the most convincing from an Earth System science perspective.

The 12 socioeconomic indicators and 12 Earth system indicators presented in the paper are meant to illustrate the rapid changes that occurred during the Great Acceleration.

Socioeconomic Trends:

  • The global human population, which increased from about 2.5 billion in 1950 to over 7 billion in 2011.

  • The growth of the global economy, with world GDP increasing around six-fold between 1950 and 2010.

  • The globalization of the economy, with FDI stocks surging from less than 1% of GDP in 1950 to nearly 35% in 2010.

  • The process of urbanization, with the urban population increasing from around 30% in 1950 to over 50% in 2010.

  • The consumption of energy resources, which more than quadrupled between 1950 and 2010.

  • The increase in agricultural inputs, with global fertilizer use rising from about 14 million tonnes in 1950 to over 200 million tonnes in 2010.

  • The construction of dams for various purposes, with the number of large dams rising from around 5,000 in 1950 to over 45,000 in 2010.

  • The increase in freshwater withdrawals, which more than doubled between 1950 and 2010.

  • The growth in paper consumption, which increased from about 50 million tonnes in 1950 to over 400 million tonnes in 2010.

  • The rise in motor vehicle production, which grew from around 15 million in 1950 to over 60 million in 2010.

  • The expansion of telecommunications, with the number of telephone subscriptions increasing from around 70 million in 1950 to over 6 billion in 2010.

  • The growth in international tourism, which increased from about 25 million tourist arrivals in 1950 to over 1 billion in 2010.

Earth System Trends

  • Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased from about 310 ppm (parts per million) in 1950 to over 400 ppm in 2015.

  • Nitrous oxide concentrations rose from around 285 ppb in 1950 to about 330 ppb in 2015.

  • Methane concentrations have increased from approximately 1100 ppb (parts per billion) in 1950 to around 1800 ppb in 2015.

  • Ozone depletion over Antarctica reached its maximum in the early 1990s, with a 60% reduction in ozone concentration compared to pre-1980 levels.

  • Land temperatures warmed faster than global averages, reaching about 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels.

  • Since the 1950s, surface ocean pH has decreased by approximately 0.1 units, indicating a 26% increase in acidity.

  • Increased from around 19 million tons in 1950 to a peak of approximately 90 million tons in the late 1990s, before slightly declining to around 80 million tons by 2015.

  • Increased from under 1 million tons in the 1950s to over 6 million tons by the early 2000s.

  • Human-induced nitrogen fixation has more than doubled the natural rate, with over 150 Tg N/yr (teragrams of nitrogen per year) being fixed by 2015.

  • Between 2000 and 2012, approximately 2.3 million km² of tropical forest was lost, an area roughly the size of Mexico.

  • Occupied around 12% of Earth's ice-free land area in the mid-20th century, with an increasing trend towards 15% by 2015.

  • A significant reduction in terrestrial net primary production (NPP) of approximately 13-17% since preindustrial times, largely due to land use change and deforestation.

The Great Acceleration encompasses an extensive range of human activities, influencing both individual experiences and the broader fabric of society. This all-encompassing phenomenon has left a lasting impact on various aspects of civilisation.

Now, let's dive into some numerical insights that serve to illuminate just a fraction of the vast, transformative historical juncture we find ourselves in. These statistics will help further make the point that we are in a significant period in human history. Ready? Take a deep breath!

  • In the realm of resource production, plastic production has skyrocketed from 1.5 million tons in 1950 to around 359 million tons in 2018. Steel production experienced a similar increase, growing from 189 million metric tons in 1950 to approximately 1.87 billion metric tons in 2019. Concrete production also rose, from an estimated 1.7 billion tons in 1950 to around 4.1 billion tons in 2021. Iron extraction increased from 280 million tons in 1950 to around 2.2 billion tons in 2019. Nickel extraction went from 100,000 metric tons in 1950 to 2.7 million metric tons in 2020, while lithium extraction grew from 2,000 metric tons in 1950 to 82,000 metric tons in 2020. The use of synthetic nitrogen fertilisers rose from around 10 million tons in 1950 to nearly 120 million tons in 2018, and phosphate rock extraction increased from 32 million tons in 1950 to around 200 million tons in 2021.

  • Border walls and barriers have proliferated since the 1950s, with at least 70 new barriers built since 2000. Immigration has also surged, with the number of international migrants growing from 77 million in 1960 to around 281 million in 2020. There has been a substantial increase in new international treaties, economic zones, and trade agreements since 1950, including the World Trade Organization, the European Union, and the North American Free Trade Agreement.

  • Social media and its user base have expanded dramatically since the early 2000s. Facebook reached 2.91 billion monthly active users by September 2021, while other major platforms like Instagram, YouTube, Twitter, and TikTok also boasted hundreds of millions to billions of users.

  • In terms of energy, oil production increased from around 20 million barrels per day in 1950 to approximately 94 million barrels per day in 2021. Coal production grew from 2.2 billion tons in 1950 to around 8 billion tons in 2020, and natural gas production rose from around 500 billion cubic meters in 1950 to approximately 4 trillion cubic meters in 2019. The share of renewable energy in global energy consumption increased from 5.6% in 1965 to 13.4% in 2019, and the number of nuclear power plants in operation reached around 440 reactors by 2021, since the first commercial reactor started in 1954.

  • Over 100,000 new chemicals have been created since 1950, and global chemical sales have increased from around $171 billion in 1970 to approximately $4 trillion in 2017. Beverage production has also grown, with coffee production increasing from 43 million bags in 1950 to around 169 million bags in 2020. Tea production increased from 1.2 million metric tons in 1950 to 6.2 million metric tons in 2019, while wine production rose from 130 million hectolitres in 1950 to around 260 million hectolitres in 2019. Beer production grew from 500 million hectolitres in 1950 to around 1.9 billion hectolitres in 2019.

  • Over 600 billion Lego bricks have been produced since their introduction in 1949, with 60 billion bricks manufactured in 2019 alone. Jeans production has surged since the 1950s, with an estimated 2 billion pairs of jeans produced annually in recent years. The number of new books published each year has increased significantly since 1950, with an estimated 2.7 million new titles published worldwide in 2020.

    > References as the bottom of this page
    > We recommend checking out The Human Impact Database and its fascinating snapshots

In fact, as of 2020, the human-made mass surpassed the global biomass, with the former estimated at around 1.1 teratonnes and the latter at approximately 1 teratonne. Notably, anthropogenic mass has doubled roughly every 20 years, and the transition point occurred in 2013. In contrast, the total human-made mass in 1900 was a mere 3% of the world's biomass, signifying a dramatic increase over a century.

Human-made mass mainly consists of concrete, aggregates, bricks, asphalt, metals, and plastics, with concrete and aggregates making up over 85% of the total mass. While overall biomass has remained relatively stable since the early 20th century, its composition has undergone significant changes, such as an 85% decrease in wild mammals' mass and a 13-fold increase in domesticated poultry. Remarkably, humans produce a quantity of anthropogenic mass equivalent to the global human population's weight every week.

REFERENCE
Elhacham, E., Ben-Uri, L., Grozovski, J. et al. Global human-made mass exceeds all living biomass. Nature 588, 442–444 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-3010-5

The Great Shift.
The Great Acceleration has the potential to result in the most significant economic transition in history—this remains an open question.

Beginning in 2007, the number of people residing in urban areas has surpassed those living in non-urban regions. This significant transformation in population distribution reflects the swift urbanization taking place across the globe.

Presented here is a modest assortment of intricate cityscapes, showcasing urban areas as a significant force behind the Great Acceleration.

Despite being identified by a single name, these perspectives include a variety of city centres and conurbations. Explore at will! Observe how these patterns align with topographical and aquatic elements, for example.

Feel free to let us know if you'd like to explore further such perspectives.

The Great Acceleration can be viewed, in numerous ways, as a period of Great Improvement. Over the past 70 years, a multitude of aspects have significantly improved, and it is crucial to share this narrative. Some key areas of progress during this time include:

  1. Life Expectancy
    Over the past 100 years, global life expectancy has increased dramatically, nearly doubling from around 40 years in the early 20th century to around 73 years today. This improvement is due to better healthcare, improved living conditions, and increased access to clean water and sanitation.

  1. Child Mortality
    Child mortality rates have fallen significantly worldwide. In 1800, almost every second child died before reaching the age of five. Today, the global child mortality rate has dropped to around 4%, thanks to advancements in healthcare, nutrition, and vaccination programs.

  2. Education
    Literacy rates and access to education have increased significantly over the past century. In 1900, only around 10% of the world population was literate, whereas today, the global literacy rate is around 86%. This progress has led to a more educated and skilled global workforce, contributing to economic development and improved quality of life.

  3. Poverty
    Extreme poverty has been reduced substantially in the last 100 years. In 1820, about 85% of the global population lived in extreme poverty, defined as living on less than $1.90 a day. Just let that sink in for a moment! Today, less than 10% of the world's population lives in extreme poverty, a remarkable achievement that has improved the lives of billions of people.

  4. Gender Equality
    While there is still much work to be done, gender equality has improved significantly over the past century. Women have gained the right to vote, access to education, and increased representation in the workforce and politics. These achievements have contributed to a more equitable and inclusive world.

  5. Democracy
    The number of democratic countries has increased dramatically over the past 100 years, with a majority of the world's population now living in democratic societies. This has led to improved human rights, greater political stability, and increased social and economic development.

Positive Trajectories
Over the past century, humanity has made remarkable progress in various aspects of life, with global life expectancy nearly doubling, child mortality rates dropping to 4%, literacy rates rising to 86%, extreme poverty reducing to less than 10%, and significant strides in gender equality, democracy, and environmental protection.
Source: Gapminder.org | Another useful chart: Our World in Data

Great Acceleration Event Array (GAEA)

The Great Acceleration Event Array (GAEA) is a term used to describe a collection of globally synchronous, abrupt, and unprecedented changes in various Earth systems that have occurred since the mid-20th century. The GAEA is characterized by a wide range of anthropogenic markers, including increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide and methane), shifts in carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios, the presence of novel materials (e.g., plastics and synthetic organic compounds), and changes in biological systems (e.g., increased species extinction rates and the spread of invasive species).

The GAEA is considered a defining feature of the proposed Anthropocene Epoch, a new geological time unit that recognizes the significant impact of human activities on the Earth system. The abrupt and global nature of the changes associated with the GAEA distinguishes it from the more gradual and localized changes that occurred during the preceding Holocene Epoch.

GAEA Anthropogenic Markers:

  • Carbon dioxide: Rapid rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since the mid-20th century.

  • Carbon isotope excursion δ13C (CO2): Shift in carbon isotope ratios due to fossil fuel burning.

  • Spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCP): Microscopic particles from high-temperature coal or oil combustion.

  • Spherical aluminosilicates and mullite: Markers of coal combustion in power plants.

  • Black carbon soot: Product of incomplete fossil fuel combustion, especially from motor vehicles.

  • High Molecular Weight polyaromatic hydrocarbons: Compounds from fossil fuel combustion.

  • Sulfur: Increased abundance due to industrial emissions.

  • Lead: Elevated levels from gasoline additives, mining, and coal burning.

  • Copper: Increased concentrations from mining, industrial processes, and fossil fuel burning.

  • Zinc: Higher abundance due to mining, industrial processes, and fossil fuel burning.

  • Mercury: Elevated levels from mining, fossil fuel burning, and industrial processes.

  • Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs): Synthetic organic compounds used in various industrial applications.

  • Microplastics: Small plastic particles derived from the breakdown of larger plastic debris or microbeads.

  • Radiocarbon: Distinct "bomb spike" caused by atmospheric nuclear weapons testing.

  • Plutonium: Rare naturally, but present due to nuclear weapons testing and nuclear accidents.

  • Iodine (129I): Increased levels from nuclear weapons testing and nuclear accidents.

  • Nitrates: Elevated concentrations from agricultural fertilizers and fossil fuel combustion.

  • Nitrogen isotope excursion: Shift in nitrogen isotope ratios due to fertilizer use and fossil fuel combustion.

  • Methane: Rising atmospheric concentrations from agriculture, fossil fuel extraction, and other anthropogenic sources.

  • Organochlorine pesticides (e.g., DDT): Synthetic pesticides widely used in agriculture.

  • Black carbon char or charcoal: Residue from biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion.

  • Oxygen isotope excursion: Shift in oxygen isotope ratios due to global warming.

  • Large mammals: Increased extinction rates and population declines.

  • Vascular plants: Increased rates of species introductions and translocations.

  • Vertebrates: Elevated rates of species introductions and translocations.

  • Invertebrates: Higher rates of species introductions and translocations.

  • Domesticates: Rapid increase in the global population of domesticated animals since the mid-20th century.

REFERENCES

Plastic production: PlasticsEurope (2019). Plastics – the Facts 2019. Retrieved from https://www.plasticseurope.org/application/files/9715/7129/9584/FINAL_web_version_Plastics_the_facts2019_14102019.pdf

Steel production: World Steel Association (2020). World Steel in Figures 2020. Retrieved from https://www.worldsteel.org/en/dam/jcr:f9355bce-5d3a-4fbc-8d1e-bb67a3edd5e8/World+Steel+in+Figures+2020.pdf

Concrete production: U.S. Geological Survey (2021). Cement Statistics and Information. Retrieved from https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/cement-statistics-and-information

Iron extraction: U.S. Geological Survey (2021). Iron Ore Statistics and Information. Retrieved from https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/iron-ore-statistics-and-information

Nickel extraction: U.S. Geological Survey (2021). Nickel Statistics and Information. Retrieved from https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/nickel-statistics-and-information

Lithium extraction: U.S. Geological Survey (2021). Lithium Statistics and Information. Retrieved from https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/lithium-statistics-and-information

Nitrogen: Our World in Data (2019). Fertilizer Consumption. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fertilizer-use

Phosphorus: U.S. Geological Survey (2021). Phosphate Rock Statistics and Information. Retrieved from https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/phosphate-rock-statistics-and-information

Border walls and barriers: BBC (2018). World divided: Mapping the barrier. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-45492913

Immigration: United Nations (2021). International Migrant Stock. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates21.asp

Social media users: Statista (2021). Number of monthly active Facebook users worldwide as of 3rd quarter 2021. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/

Oil production: U.S. Energy Information Administration (2021). International Energy Statistics. Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world

Coal production: BP (2021). Statistical Review of World Energy. Retrieved from https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf

Natural gas production: U.S. Energy Information Administration (2021). International Energy Statistics. Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world

Renewable energies: BP (2021). Statistical Review of World Energy. Retrieved from https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf

Nuclear power plants: World Nuclear Association (2021). World Nuclear Power Reactors & Uranium Requirements. Retrieved from https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/facts-and-figures/world-nuclear-power-reactors-and-uranium-requireme.aspx

Jeans:

Coffee:

Tea:

Beer:

Books:

Wine:

New chemicals: